Decisions made today—whether by individuals, families or businesses—rest on views of what the future holds. The same principle applies, with far greater consequence, to government.
Everyday choices illustrate this. What you buy for dinner hinges on who will be eating, their preferences, where you’ll dine and what cooking tools you have. The same logic applies to booking a family holiday, renovating a home, choosing a vehicle, buying a larger or smaller property, or relocating. All those decisions depend on the future you’re expecting.
Businesses face parallel decisions: how many people to hire, whether to expand or cut production capacity, repair or replace equipment, and how much to allocate to marketing or R&D. All rest on future expectations.
Forming those expectations means assessing certainty and risk: what could go wrong, how likely it is, and what the impact would be. For a family meal, uncertainty about whether the kids will be home might lead you to prepare something freezable or that keeps for several days. For a holiday, the same uncertainty shapes whether you book for the whole family and where you go. Business decisions likewise turn on questions such as the direction of interest rates, the strength of the economy and currency, the path of inflation, access to offshore markets, or the threat of an industry disruptor.
The decisions of government are no different, they must be based on future expectations responsibly formed after recognising major risks, assessing them honestly, and planning to neutralise or contain them.
Take the hot topic of immigration, for example. The question of positive or negative net immigration depends on factors such as whether there is likely to be a surplus or deficit of job opportunities and to what extent, and what skills will be needed? These questions can only be answered once there is a clear understanding of what the future holds. Our current government has nevertheless significantly increased the level of immigration seemingly without regard to Australia’s economic future – so without knowing whether there is more likely to be a shortage or surplus of jobs and what skills will be needed.
The same applies to government managing public finances. It needs to continually examine data, trends and geopolitical developments to identify both the opportunities and the threats. Once threats are identified, government needs to estimate their likelihood and potential impact, and design measures to reduce or eliminate harm. Four major economic risks are already visible and growing. Each is real. Each is likely. And each could cause widespread hardship. Yet, government appears not to have even recognised the risks let alone mitigated them.
Many families and all respectable businesses have clear goals and short, medium and long-term plans to achieve them. Government should also – otherwise it condemns the nation to drift aimlessly—like a twig in a stream. Australia’s goals are to umm… oh, we don’t have any. No vision, no plans. Our political class are only concerned about winning the next election.
Classic Liberals is the only party that has a bold but achievable vision for Australia and plans to achieve it. The choice is clear: continue drifting toward potential disaster under the same failed political class or join Classic Liberals in striving for a far more prosperous future for all Australians. Can you afford not to?
Written by: Mark M.J. Morris